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Inflation is running at a reported 5.1% in China, a figure most believe is on the low side. Nonetheless, China has been loath to hike rates out of fear of more "hot money" flowing in. Something had to give, and it did. The markets forced China's hand.

Please consider China Increases Rates to Counter Highest Inflation in Two Years

China raised interest rates for the second time since mid-October to counter the fastest inflation in more than two years and more moves may follow.

The benchmark one-year lending rate will rise by 25 basis points to 5.81 percent and the one-year deposit rate will climb by the same amount to 2.75 percent, effective today, the People’s Bank of China said in a one-sentence statement on its website late yesterday.

Premier Wen Jiabao is seeking to slow gains in property values and consumer prices that are making it harder for families to buy homes and pay for food. Bank lending and a wider-than-forecast November trade surplus have pumped more cash into an economy already awash with money.

China is tightening after a record expansion of credit to counter the effects of the world financial crisis. The broadest measure of money supply, M2, has surged by 55 percent over the past two years and outstanding yuan-denominated loans have climbed 60 percent to 47.4 trillion.

Residence-related costs, including charges for water, electricity and rent, jumped 5.8 percent last month from a year earlier, the most in more than two years, and consumer goods prices rose 5.9 percent, the biggest gain since August 2008, according to statistics bureau data.

Policy makers are concerned that raising interest rates could “encourage hot money inflows,” Paul Cavey, a Hong Kong- based economist at Macquarie Securities Ltd. said. “Raising interest rates has far more implications” than ordering lenders to set aside more of their deposits as reserves, as it may affect the ability of local governments and companies to pay their debts.

State Council researcher Ba Shusong told state television yesterday that the government will step up regulation of capital inflows, without specifying measures that will be taken.

The Ministry of Commerce is stepping up supervision of foreign investment in real estate to crack down on speculation after a 48 percent jump in overseas fund inflows to the industry in the first 11 months of the year, spokesman Yao Jian said on Dec. 15. Policy makers may also allow faster gains in the yuan to help curb inflation from higher prices of imported commodities, according to analysts’ forecasts.

China Overheating

China was number 5 on my list of Ten Economic and Investment Themes for 2011

5. China Overheats, Multiple Rate Hikes Coming

China, everyone's favorite promised land, has a hard landing. China will grow at perhaps 5-6% but that is nowhere near as much as China wants, or the world expects. Tightening in China will crack its property bubble and more importantly pressure commodities. The longer China holds off in tightening, the harder the landing.

Capital Controls Coming

Initially, rate hikes will encourage more "hot money" inflows into China. In hopes of preventing those inflows, China has announced more capital controls. It will be interesting to see precisely what those controls will look like.

Currency Sterilization Needed

One thing China should do is sterilize speculative hot money and balance of trade inflows via domestic government bond issuance, hoping to curb money supply growth.

However, it is not as simple as that, because in a fractional-reserve credit system, a net increase in lending itself increases money supply.

Clearly the Chinese central bank is behind the curve. Will China simply restrict lending? Would it even work?

I do not know about the former, but the latter would eventually force a hard landing if China gets serious enough. Actually, there are so many problems that I think a hard landing is coming regardless, and the longer China dallies, the harder it will be.

In the meantime, these paltry rate hikes by China of .25 points each pale in comparison to increases in reported consumer price increases.

Enormous Property Bubbles Including Vacant Cities

It is not "consumer price inflation" that is the big problem. Asset inflation, especially property speculation is rampant.

In case you missed it please consider The ghost towns of China: Amazing satellite images show cities meant to be home to millions lying deserted

Speculation will continue until China gets serious or until the pool of greater fools buying property at absurd prices dries up.

China’s Army of Graduates Struggles for Jobs

Exacerbating China's myriad of problems, an Army of Graduates Struggles for Jobs

In 1998, when Jiang Zemin, then the president, announced plans to bolster higher education, Chinese universities and colleges produced 830,000 graduates a year. Last May, that number was more than six million and rising.

It is a remarkable achievement, yet for a government fixated on stability such figures are also a cause for concern. The economy, despite its robust growth, does not generate enough good professional jobs to absorb the influx of highly educated young adults. And many of them bear the inflated expectations of their parents, who emptied their bank accounts to buy them the good life that a higher education is presumed to guarantee.

“College essentially provided them with nothing,” said Zhang Ming, a political scientist and vocal critic of China’s education system. “For many young graduates, it’s all about survival. If there was ever an economic crisis, they could be a source of instability.”

In a kind of cruel reversal, China’s old migrant class — uneducated villagers who flocked to factory towns to make goods for export — are now in high demand, with spot labor shortages and tighter government oversight driving up blue-collar wages.

But the supply of those trained in accounting, finance and computer programming now seems limitless, and their value has plunged. Between 2003 and 2009, the average starting salary for migrant laborers grew by nearly 80 percent; during the same period, starting pay for college graduates stayed the same, although their wages actually decreased if inflation is taken into account.

Chinese sociologists have come up with a new term for educated young people who move in search of work like Ms. Liu: the ant tribe. It is a reference to their immense numbers — at least 100,000 in Beijing alone — and to the fact that they often settle into crowded neighborhoods, toiling for wages that would give even low-paid factory workers pause.

“Like ants, they gather in colonies, sometimes underground in basements, and work long and hard,” said Zhou Xiaozheng, a sociology professor at Renmin University in Beijing.

Odds for social unrest will mount if China's growth slows. Yet, because of short-term overheating concerns on top of long-term peak oil issues there is no way China can keep growing at the current pace.

Eight Problems Facing China

Hot money inflows

Huge property bubble

Massive increases in money supply, much of it property speculation and building of unneeded capacity

Currency manipulation charges from the US and potential trade wars

Unsterilized trade imbalances fuel inflation

Slowing Europe

Dearth of Jobs for new graduates

Potential social unrest

Case For Hard Landing

Risks are enormously skewed to the downside, so much so that the odds China avoids a hard landing are not good. China is far more exposed to a slowdown in Europe than the US and the popping of China's property bubble will extract a huge toll.

Those plowing into commodities, foreign currencies, and equities (especially foreign equities), fail to consider those risks.

Moreover, given that much of China's growth is overheating and malinvestment, it is not even clear the Renminbi is undervalued.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

The Business Travel Series is supported by Philips ChargeOn, a wire-free mobile phone charging system that gives you up to 4 hours of additional talk time when you’re on the go. To learn more about Philips ChargeOn, visit its website here.

Business travelers know better than anybody that time is money. Every second you spend fumbling around trying to find directions, losing receipts or trying to communicate in a language you don’t understand could mean the difference between making the big meeting or being out of a job.

If you own an Androidclass="blippr-nobr">Android smartphone though, you can make your life a lot easier with apps that enhance your business productivity while you’re on the go.

From collaboration to expensing, we’ve chosen six Android apps we believe are essential to any business trip. They will help keep you organized and focused on the business you need to take care of, no matter where you are.

Here are our six essential Android apps for business travelers.

1. Expensify

The expense report is one of the most essential but annoying components of business travel. You can’t live with them, and you can’t live without them.

Expensify makes this process easier to manage by importing your receipts directly from your credit card and turning them into easy-to-send PDF reports. The Android application makes it dead-simple to add cash expenses, log mileage and upload images of your receipts while you’re on the go.

Plus, how can you hate an application with “expense reports that don’t suck” as its tagline?

2. Talk to Me

Talk to Me is a simple application that translates what you’re saying into another language in real time. If you need to ask for directions in French, need to dictate complicated commands in Italian or just want to impress your friends with Spanish translations, this is the app to have. We think it’s mind-blowing.

This app is essential for the international business traveler in a time crunch. It can even be set as a widget for easy home screen access.

3. TripItclass="blippr-nobr">TripIt

We’re big fans of TripIt here at class='blippr-nobr'>Mashableclass="blippr-nobr">Mashable. It’s a master dashboard for all of your travel plans, tracking you and your network’s movements, points, miles, itineraries and more. It’s an essential for business travelers who want to organize and share their travel plans with the rest of their team.

The Android app extends that functionality to your smartphone so that you can access all of your team’s itineraries while in the airport or in the cab. It provides maps and directions. Pro users get two added bonuses: flight alerts and alternate flight options.

There are several great trip organization apps, but TripIt is the cream of the crop.

4. Box.net for Android

Say you have a presentation to give in Berlin in two hours, and your team calls you to tell you that they needed to make last-minute changes to your presentation, plus they want to send you info on the people you’re meeting. You’re not able to get your laptop out to review the new information, so what do you do?

Simple: You whip out your Android phone and launch Box.net to pull up the presentation and the files while you’re in the hotel, in the cab or in the waiting room. Box.net gives businesses the ability to easily share documents, and Box.net for Android lets you search and access them no matter where you are.

Having access to your company’s database of documents could mean the difference between being prepared on the road and being a bust at that big meeting.

5. Aloqa

Aloqa is a must-have for any business traveler that doesn’t want to waste time trying to figure out the best hotspots in the cities he or she visits. Unlike other location apps like Yelpclass="blippr-nobr">Yelp, Aloqa automatically notifies you of the interesting restaurants, events and places near you.

Once you set up your interests (“channels”), the notifications become killer. It’s not just “top restaurants near you,” but “top rated night clubs according to Yelp within walking distance.” There are a lot of customization options that ensure you always pick the best café for that impromptu business meeting near your hotel.

6. FlightTrack

For most business travelers, nothing is worse than arriving at the airport only to have your flight canceled or delayed overnight. It’s just as painful trying to check the status of your flight with the airline.

FlightTrack from Mobiata is an app that tracks flight times, gates, delays and more so that you know when you need to be at the airport and when you need to be booking a different flight to get back home.

For those willing to pay a bit extra, there is also a Pro version of FlightTrack, complete with TripIt integration, and thousands of airport listings.

Series Supported by Philips ChargeOn/>

More Travel Resources from Mashable:

- 6 Free iPad Apps for Planning Your Next Vacation/> - 4 Social Web Apps for Making and Sharing Your Travel Plans/> - 7 Ways Mobile Apps are Enriching Historical Tourism/> - 10 Social Media Travel Resources You May Have Missed/> - How the Resort Industry is Using Social Media

Photo courtesy of Flickrclass="blippr-nobr">Flickr, laihiu

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Tuesday, December 28, 2010

People Making Money Net